Probability of Location (POL)

SARBC

Search and Rescue Society of British Columbia

Probability of Location (POL)

Have you ever wanted to mark the spot on a map, showing the location of a missing person? For a few of the lost person categories, this is possible to a point. You may end up with more than one "X" on the map. But at least you can send teams to check the "X"s out, instead of just sending searchers to the traditional high POA area segments.

Some of the information relating to predicting the location of a missing person would be found in Behaviour Characteristics, Speed Tables, Missing Person Statistics, Questionnaire items (age, carrying, plans, psych profile, terrain profile, medical profile, weather profile, etc.), witnesses, friends, family, co-workers, etc.

More information can be found in publications from NASAR

Really good Interviewing skills are important. Without information, it is difficult to run an effective search. Planning is quesswork at best.

The area of search planning that has received the least amout of attention, is Time Line Analysis. Without a contiguous time line, planning becomes dependent upon guesswork again. Analysing a Time line is of paramount importance for predicting lost person behaviour and location.

It is all very well to go out with the high tech gadgets, and the high tech search patterns, but why not go to the "X"s first?

How do you predict where the "X"s are? Start with the above, know your missing person, law of opposites, and, time line. Is that it? No, much more discussion is needed.

I'm going to say that the stats mentioned here are reasonably old, and haven't been updated with the new stuff.

To kick off "X" marks the spot (POL), why not look at a specific category.
Starting with "Despondent", it is my personal experience that one can very quickly come up with a few likely spots - one of which the subject will be at.

I'm sure you have knowledge of other categories, where the subjects have fit a set of behaviour characteristics. If so, you know where the next one is likely to be. Is there a category where POL cannot be used effectively?

Probability of Location background and support files

Behaviour Characteristics by Category

Interviewing - Tips as a Lesson Plan

Interviewing - Tips as a Powerpoint presentation (85k)

Missing Person Questionnaire

Speed Tables Hiker, Biker, Canoe, Etc.

Missing Person Statistics

See these pages for related information

Critical Incident Stress (CIS)

Hypothermia

Incident Management

Lost in the Woods

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