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- Reason Lost
- Reason Stranded
- Method of Finding
- Rescue Techniques
- Behaviour Characteristics
- Subject Behaviour
- Detectability
- POD Table
- Man-Hours - Type II & III
- Probability Zones - Hilly & Flat Terrain
- Hiker Detectability
- Routes Hikers Follow
- Reason Hiker Lost
Yosemite | Colorado | New Mexico | Eastern U.S.
REASON LOST
| REASON | PERCENTAGE | | | | | Disoriented | 35.80 | | Poor adult judgement | 19.90 | | Poor adult supervision | 19.70 | | Darkness | 11.00 | | Hunting | 5.50 | | Underestimated distance | 2.20 | | Misguided by passersby | 1.60 | | Fog | 1.60 | | Snow | 1.10 | | Fishing | 1.10 | | Emotionally upset | 0.50 | |
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REASON STRANDED
| REASON | PERCENTAGE | | | | | darkness | 24.50 | | poor adult judgement | 22.20 | | snow | 21.50 | | underestimate distance | 11.40 | | steep terrain | 6.60 | | mud slide | 4.80 | | vehicle problem | 3.00 | | disoriented | 1.80 | | hunting | 1.20 | | flood | 1.20 | | avalanche | 0.60 | | drugs | 0.60 | | fog | 0.60 | |
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METHOD OF FINDING
| | PRIMARY | | SECONDARY | | | METHOD | NUMBER | % | NUMBER | % | | | | | | | | Visual contact | 76 | 21.40 | 0 | 0.00 | | Got self out | 74 | 20.80 | 0 | 0.00 | | Voice contact | 57 | 26.00 | 0 | 0.00 | | Helicopter | 50 | 14.00 | 5 | 7.80 | | No one found | 43 | 12.10 | 0 | 0.00 | | Clues, tracks | 19 | 5.30 | 7 | 10.80 | | Victim created signal | 11 | 3.10 | 3 | 4.60 | | Informant | 10 | 2.80 | 21 | 32.20 | | Clues, vehicle | 9 | 2.50 | 29 | 44.60 | | Non searcher found | 4 | 1.10 | 0 | 0.00 | | Clues, clothes, gear | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 0.00 | | Probing | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 0.00 | | | | | | | | Total | 356 | 100.00 | 65 | 100.00 | | Total, all clues | 8.40 | 55.40 | | | |
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RESCUE TECHNIQUES
Yosemite | Colorado | New Mexico | Eastern U.S.
| ACTIVITY | Number | % | | Number | % | | Number | % | | Number | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | Assist or own power | 78 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 48 | 0 | | | Carry out-foot | 70 | 25 | 42 | 45 | 14 | 44 | 27 | 77 | | | Rock/scree evac | 33 | 12 | 29 | 31 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 26 | | | Animal evac | 47 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | | | Water evac | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 8 | 23 | | | Vehicle evac | 19 | 7 | 27 | 29 | 22 | 69 | 19 | 54 | | | Aircraft evac | 112 | 41 | 54 | 58 | 18 | 56 | 1 | 3 | | | Other | 17 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total | 276 | 100 | 93 | 100 | 32 | 100 | 35 | 100 | | |
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BEHAVIOUR CHARACTERISTICS
| CHARACTERISTIC | CHILDREN | HIKERS | HUNTERS | ELDERLY | | | | | | | | Not concealed (good weather) | 75 | 82 | 83 | 58 | | Not concealed (bad weather) | 57 | 60 | 66 | 10 | | Go upwards (slope) | 36 | 8 | 0 | 0 | | Stay at same elevation (slope) | 9 | 4 | 24 | 25 | | Go downwards (slope) | 55 | 88 | 76 | 75 | | Survive (good weather) | 95 | 87 | 91 | 58 | | Survive (bad weather) | 29 | 30 | 50 | 2 | | Use a path or trail | 71 | 73 | 59 | 48 | | Dressed brightly | 44 | 73 | 37 | 46 | |
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SUBJECT BEHAVIOUR
| PLACE LOST | SUBJECT BEHAVIOUR | PERCENT | | Known Location | | | | | Followed a road, pathway or trail | 34 | | | Went cross-country | 33 | | | Went down drainage or path of least resistance | 25 | | | Found in hazardous area | 8 | | | En Route | | | | | Stayed on path or trail, maybe wrong one | 22 | | | Left main trail; shortcut | 34 | | | Left main trail; headed for sights, sounds of civilization | 22 | | | Left main trail; became lost in heavy brush | 5 | | | Victim of hazardous areas | 11 | | | Medical problem near or on trail | 5 | | Wilderness | | | | | Found and stayed on travel aids | 62 | | | Remained in heavy bush, brush or timber | 23 | | | Headed for sights/sounds of civilization | 4 | | | Victims of hazardous areas | 4 | |
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DETECTABILITY
| GROUP | GOOD WEATHER | BAD WEATHER | | | | % | % | | | | | | | Small Children (1-6) | 90 | 75 | | | Children (6-12) | 65 | 10 | | | Hunters | 83 | 66 | | | Hikers | 75 | 67 | | | Misc. Outdoor Persons | 75 | 50 | | | Elderly | 59 | 10 | | |
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POD TABLE
| SWEEP SEQUENCE | DAY | 1st NIGHT | 2nd NIGHT | ALL NIGHT | | | SWEEPS | SWEEP | SWEEP | SWEEPS | | | | | | | | | 20 | 92 | 81 | 81 | 81 | | | 60 | 71 | 52 | 52 | 52 | | | 100 | 53 | 35 | 35 | 35 | | | 20+20 | 99 | 98 | 97 | 97 | | | 20+60 | 96 | 95 | 91 | 91 | | | 20+100 | 96 | 91 | 88 | 88 | | | 60+20 | 96 | 96 | 91 | 91 | | | 60+60 | 91 | 86 | 77 | 77 | | | 60+100 | 86 | 78 | 68 | 68 | | | 100+20 | 96 | 94 | 88 | 88 | | | 100+60 | 86 | 81 | 68 | 68 | | | 100+100 | 78 | 69 | 57 | 57 | | | 20+20+20 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | | | 20+20+60 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 98 | | | 20+20+100 | 99 | 99 | 98 | 98 | | | 20+60+20 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 98 | | | 20+60+20 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 98 | | | 20+60+60 | 99 | 98 | 97 | 96 | | | 20+60+100 | 99 | 97 | 96 | 94 | | | 20+100+20 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 98 | | | 20+100+60 | 99 | 97 | 96 | 94 | | | 20+100+100 | 98 | 96 | 94 | 92 | | | 60+20+20 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 98 | | | 60+20+60 | 99 | 99 | 97 | 96 | | | 60+20+100 | 99 | 98 | 96 | 94 | | | 60+60+20 | 99 | 99 | 98 | 96 | | | 60+60+60 | 98 | 96 | 93 | 89 | | | 60+60+100 | 96 | 93 | 89 | 85 | | | 60+100+20 | 99 | 98 | 97 | 94 | | | 60+100+60 | 96 | 93 | 91 | 85 | | | 60+100+100 | 94 | 90 | 85 | 79 | | | 100+20+20 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 98 | | | 100+20+60 | 99 | 97 | 96 | 94 | | | 100+20+100 | 99 | 97 | 94 | 92 | | | 100+60+20 | 99 | 98 | 97 | 94 | | | 100+60+60 | 96 | 94 | 91 | 85 | | | 100+60+100 | 94 | 90 | 85 | 79 | | | 100+100+20 | 98 | 97 | 96 | 92 | | | 100+100+20 | 98 | 97 | 96 | 92 | | | 100+100+60 | 94 | 91 | 87 | 79 | | | 100+100+100 | 90 | 85 | 80 | 72 | | |
This POD table was determined by experiments conducted by Jon Wartes in 1974, using the ESAR group. The formula for computing cumulative POD was derived from this information. The search patterns were standard Type II and Type III. Top of Page
GROUND SEARCH MAN HOURS - TYPE II/III (1 Sq Mi)
| POD | SPACING | NO. OF SEARCHERS | HOURS | SEARCHER HOURS | | | | | | | | 5 | 190 | 27.8 | 3.5 | 97.2 | | 10 | 180 | 29.3 | 3.5 | 102.7 | | 15 | 170 | 30.1 | 3.5 | 108.7 | | 20 | 160 | 33.0 | 3.5 | 115.5 | | 25 | 150 | 35.2 | 3.5 | 123.2 | | 30 | 140 | 37.7 | 3.5 | 132.0 | | 35 | 130 | 40.6 | 3.5 | 142.2 | | 40 | 120 | 44.0 | 3.5 | 154.0 | | 45 | 110 | 48.0 | 3.5 | 168.0 | | 50 | 100 | 53.0 | 3.5 | 185.5 | | 55 | 90 | 58.7 | 3.5 | 205.3 | | 60 | 80 | 66.0 | 3.5 | 231.0 | | 65 | 70 | 75.4 | 3.5 | 264.0 | | 70 | 60 | 88.0 | 3.5 | 308.0 | | 75 | 50 | 105.6 | 3.5 | 369.6 | | 80 | 40 | 132.0 | 3.5 | 462.0 | | 85 | 30 | 176.0 | 3.5 | 616.0 | | 85 | 30 | 176.0 | 3.5 | 616.0 | | 90 | 20 | 264.0 | 3.5 | 924.0 | | 95 | 10 | 528.0 | 3.5 | 1848.0 | |
This table was determined by experiments conducted by Jon Wartes in 1974, using the ESAR group in Seattle. The search patterns were standard Type II and Type III. Top of Page
PROBABILITY ZONES - Hilly Terrain
| GROUP | MEDIAN | A | B | C | MAXIMUM ZONE | | | 25% | 50% | 75% | 89% | | CHILDREN 1-6 | | 0.1 up | 0.5 up | 1.5 up | 1.6 up | | | 0.3 dn | 0.4 dn | 0.5 dn | 1.4 dn | 2.6 dn | | | | | | | | | | | | 92% | | CHILDREN 7+ | | 1.0 dn | 0.5 up | 2.0 up | 2.6 up | | | 1.6 dn | 2.0 dn | 2.1 dn | 4.0 dn | 4.1 dn | | | | | | | | | | | | 90% | | ELDERLY | | 0.5 dn | 0.0 | 0.4 up | 1.0 up | | | 1.2 dn | 1.8 dn | 2.4 dn | 2.6 dn | 3.0 dn | | | | | | | | | | | | 83% | | HIKERS | | 2.0 dn | 0.6 dn | 0.4 up | 4.0 up | | | 2.5 dn | 3.0 dn | 3.6 dn | 6.1 dn | 6.0 dn | | | | | | | | | | | | 93% | | HUNTERS | | 1.8 dn | 0.7 dn | 0.8 up | 3.0 up | | | 2.0 dn | 2.8 dn | 3.1 dn | 4.0 dn | 6.0 dn | | | | | | | | | | | | 84% | | MISC | | 0.6 dn | 0.0 | 1.4 up | 2.5 up | | | 1.6 dn | 1.6 dn | 3.0 dn | 3.1 dn | 3.2 dn | |
PROBABILITY ZONES - Flat Terrain
| GROUP | MEDIAN | A | B | C | MAXIMUM ZONE | | | 25% | 50% | 75% | 92% | | CHILDREN 1-6 | 1.2 | 0.1-1.6 | 0.6-1-7 | 0.5-2.1 | 0-2.2 | | | | | | 92% | | CHILDREN 7+ | 1.2 | 0.8-1.2 | 0.7-2.0 | 0.2-2.2 | 0-3.0 | | | | | | 93% | | ELDERLY | 1.0 | 0.8-1.0 | 0.7-1.2 | 0.1-1.3 | 0-3.0 | | | | | | 94% | | HIKERS | 2.0 | 1.4-2.4 | 1.0-3.2 | 0.2-3.3 | 0-4.0 | | | | | | 89% | | HUNTERS | 1.6 | 1.0-1.6 | 0.9-2.2 | 0.1-2.3 | 0-3.0 | | | | | | 89% | | MISC | 1.6 | 1.1-1.6 | 0.5-1.8 | 0.1-2.8 | 0-4.0 | |
Excerpted from Analysis of Lost Person Behaviour, published by Bill Syrotuck in 1976.
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HIKER DETECTABILITY
HIKER DETECTABILITY Yosemite 80-82 Colorado 80-81
| | Number | % | Number | % | | | | | | | | Unknown | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | | Conscious | 10 | 37 | 11 | 50 | | Cooperative | 14 | 52 | 13 | 59 | | Verbal response | 10 | 37 | 9 | 41 | | Mobile | 11 | 41 | 14 | 64 | | Visual sighting | 9 | 33 | 3 | 14 | | Prone position | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | Dark clothing | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | Hidden from view | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | | Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
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ROUTES HIKERS FOLLOW
ROUTE FOLLOWED Yosemite 80-82 Colorado 80-81
| | Number | % | Number | % | | | | | | | | Unknown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Path/trail/road | 12 | 37 | 17 | 55 | | Natural drainage | 13 | 41 | 11 | 35 | | Natural clearings | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | | Toward landmark | 3 | 9 | 4 | 13 | | Toward civilization | 0 | 9 | 10 | 32 | | Over major obstacle | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | | Wandered about | 6 | 19 | 5 | 16 | | Cross country | 8 | 25 | 8 | 26 | | Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
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REASON HIKER LOST
REASON HIKER LOST Yosemite 80-82 Colorado 80-81
| | Number | % | Number | % | | | | | | | | Unknown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Poor supervision | 2 | 5 | 7 | 22 | | Accidental supervision | 5 | 13 | 10 | 31 | | Intentional separation | 12` | 31 | 10 | 31 | | Took short cut | 3 | 8 | 2 | 6 | | Poor/no map | 9 | 23 | 9 | 28 | | Disoriented | 16 | 41 | 15 | 47 | | Poor trail/markings | 3 | 8 | 2 | 6 | | Misjudge time/ distance | 9 | 23 | 11 | 34 | | Other | 5 | 13 | 2 | 6 | |
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