Behaviour Characteristics

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  1. Reason Lost
  2. Reason Stranded
  3. Method of Finding
  4. Rescue Techniques
  5. Behaviour Characteristics
  6. Subject Behaviour
  7. Detectability
  8. POD Table
  9. Man-Hours - Type II & III
  10. Probability Zones - Hilly & Flat Terrain
  11. Hiker Detectability
  12. Routes Hikers Follow
  13. Reason Hiker Lost

Yosemite | Colorado | New Mexico | Eastern U.S.


REASON LOST

REASON PERCENTAGE
Disoriented 35.80
Poor adult judgement 19.90
Poor adult supervision 19.70
Darkness 11.00
Hunting 5.50
Underestimated distance 2.20
Misguided by passersby 1.60
Fog 1.60
Snow 1.10
Fishing 1.10
Emotionally upset 0.50

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REASON STRANDED

REASON PERCENTAGE
darkness 24.50
poor adult judgement 22.20
snow 21.50
underestimate distance 11.40
steep terrain 6.60
mud slide 4.80
vehicle problem 3.00
disoriented 1.80
hunting 1.20
flood 1.20
avalanche 0.60
drugs 0.60
fog 0.60

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METHOD OF FINDING

PRIMARY SECONDARY
METHOD NUMBER % NUMBER %
Visual contact 76 21.40 0 0.00
Got self out 74 20.80 0 0.00
Voice contact 57 26.00 0 0.00
Helicopter 50 14.00 5 7.80
No one found 43 12.10 0 0.00
Clues, tracks 19 5.30 7 10.80
Victim created signal 11 3.10 3 4.60
Informant 10 2.80 21 32.20
Clues, vehicle 9 2.50 29 44.60
Non searcher found 4 1.10 0 0.00
Clues, clothes, gear 2 0.60 0 0.00
Probing 1 0.30 0 0.00
Total 356 100.00 65 100.00
Total, all clues 8.40 55.40

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RESCUE TECHNIQUES

Yosemite | Colorado | New Mexico | Eastern U.S.

ACTIVITY Number % |Number % |Number % |Number %
Assist or own power 78 0 39 0 51 0 48 0
Carry out-foot 70 25 42 45 14 44 27 77
Rock/scree evac 33 12 29 31 5 16 9 26
Animal evac 47 17 6 6 4 12 0 0
Water evac 7 3 2 2 6 19 8 23
Vehicle evac 19 7 27 29 22 69 19 54
Aircraft evac 112 41 54 58 18 56 1 3
Other 17 6 8 9 1 3 5 14
Total 276 100 93 100 32 100 35 100

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BEHAVIOUR CHARACTERISTICS

CHARACTERISTIC CHILDREN HIKERS HUNTERS ELDERLY
Not concealed (good weather) 75 82 83 58
Not concealed (bad weather) 57 60 66 10
Go upwards (slope) 36 8 0 0
Stay at same elevation (slope) 9 4 24 25
Go downwards (slope) 55 88 76 75
Survive (good weather) 95 87 91 58
Survive (bad weather) 29 30 50 2
Use a path or trail 71 73 59 48
Dressed brightly 44 73 37 46

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SUBJECT BEHAVIOUR

PLACE LOST SUBJECT BEHAVIOUR PERCENT
Known Location
Followed a road, pathway or trail 34
Went cross-country 33
Went down drainage or path of least resistance 25
Found in hazardous area 8
En Route
Stayed on path or trail, maybe wrong one 22
Left main trail; shortcut 34
Left main trail; headed for sights, sounds of civilization 22
Left main trail; became lost in heavy brush 5
Victim of hazardous areas 11
Medical problem near or on trail 5
Wilderness
Found and stayed on travel aids 62
Remained in heavy bush, brush or timber 23
Headed for sights/sounds of civilization 4
Victims of hazardous areas 4

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DETECTABILITY

GROUP GOOD WEATHER BAD WEATHER
% %
Small Children (1-6) 90 75
Children (6-12) 65 10
Hunters 83 66
Hikers 75 67
Misc. Outdoor Persons 75 50
Elderly 59 10

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POD TABLE

SWEEP SEQUENCE DAY 1st NIGHT 2nd NIGHT ALL NIGHT
SWEEPS SWEEP SWEEP SWEEPS
20 92 81 81 81
60 71 52 52 52
100 53 35 35 35
20+20 99 98 97 97
20+60 96 95 91 91
20+100 96 91 88 88
60+20 96 96 91 91
60+60 91 86 77 77
60+100 86 78 68 68
100+20 96 94 88 88
100+60 86 81 68 68
100+100 78 69 57 57
20+20+20 99 99 99 99
20+20+60 99 99 99 98
20+20+100 99 99 98 98
20+60+20 99 99 99 98
20+60+20 99 99 99 98
20+60+60 99 98 97 96
20+60+100 99 97 96 94
20+100+20 99 99 99 98
20+100+60 99 97 96 94
20+100+100 98 96 94 92
60+20+20 99 99 99 98
60+20+60 99 99 97 96
60+20+100 99 98 96 94
60+60+20 99 99 98 96
60+60+60 98 96 93 89
60+60+100 96 93 89 85
60+100+20 99 98 97 94
60+100+60 96 93 91 85
60+100+100 94 90 85 79
100+20+20 99 99 99 98
100+20+60 99 97 96 94
100+20+100 99 97 94 92
100+60+20 99 98 97 94
100+60+60 96 94 91 85
100+60+100 94 90 85 79
100+100+20 98 97 96 92
100+100+20 98 97 96 92
100+100+60 94 91 87 79
100+100+100 90 85 80 72

This POD table was determined by experiments conducted by Jon Wartes in 1974, using the ESAR group. The formula for computing cumulative POD was derived from this information. The search patterns were standard Type II and Type III.

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GROUND SEARCH MAN HOURS - TYPE II/III (1 Sq Mi)

POD SPACING NO. OF SEARCHERS HOURS SEARCHER HOURS
5 190 27.8 3.5 97.2
10 180 29.3 3.5 102.7
15 170 30.1 3.5 108.7
20 160 33.0 3.5 115.5
25 150 35.2 3.5 123.2
30 140 37.7 3.5 132.0
35 130 40.6 3.5 142.2
40 120 44.0 3.5 154.0
45 110 48.0 3.5 168.0
50 100 53.0 3.5 185.5
55 90 58.7 3.5 205.3
60 80 66.0 3.5 231.0
65 70 75.4 3.5 264.0
70 60 88.0 3.5 308.0
75 50 105.6 3.5 369.6
80 40 132.0 3.5 462.0
85 30 176.0 3.5 616.0
85 30 176.0 3.5 616.0
90 20 264.0 3.5 924.0
95 10 528.0 3.5 1848.0

This table was determined by experiments conducted by Jon Wartes in 1974, using the ESAR group in Seattle. The search patterns were standard Type II and Type III.

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PROBABILITY ZONES - Hilly Terrain

GROUP MEDIAN A B C MAXIMUM ZONE
25% 50% 75% 89%
CHILDREN 1-6 0.1 up 0.5 up 1.5 up 1.6 up
0.3 dn 0.4 dn 0.5 dn 1.4 dn 2.6 dn
92%
CHILDREN 7+ 1.0 dn 0.5 up 2.0 up 2.6 up
1.6 dn 2.0 dn 2.1 dn 4.0 dn 4.1 dn
90%
ELDERLY 0.5 dn 0.0 0.4 up 1.0 up
1.2 dn 1.8 dn 2.4 dn 2.6 dn 3.0 dn
83%
HIKERS 2.0 dn 0.6 dn 0.4 up 4.0 up
2.5 dn 3.0 dn 3.6 dn 6.1 dn 6.0 dn
93%
HUNTERS1.8 dn 0.7 dn 0.8 up 3.0 up
2.0 dn 2.8 dn 3.1 dn 4.0 dn 6.0 dn
84%
MISC 0.6 dn 0.0 1.4 up 2.5 up
1.6 dn 1.6 dn 3.0 dn 3.1 dn 3.2 dn

PROBABILITY ZONES - Flat Terrain

GROUP MEDIAN A B C MAXIMUM ZONE
25% 50% 75% 92%
CHILDREN 1-6 1.2 0.1-1.6 0.6-1-7 0.5-2.1 0-2.2
92%
CHILDREN 7+ 1.2 0.8-1.2 0.7-2.0 0.2-2.2 0-3.0
93%
ELDERLY 1.0 0.8-1.0 0.7-1.2 0.1-1.3 0-3.0
94%
HIKERS 2.0 1.4-2.4 1.0-3.2 0.2-3.3 0-4.0
89%
HUNTERS 1.6 1.0-1.6 0.9-2.2 0.1-2.3 0-3.0
89%
MISC 1.6 1.1-1.6 0.5-1.8 0.1-2.8 0-4.0

Excerpted from Analysis of Lost Person Behaviour, published by Bill Syrotuck in 1976.

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HIKER DETECTABILITY

HIKER DETECTABILITY Yosemite 80-82 Colorado 80-81

Number % Number %
Unknown 2 7 0 0
Conscious 10 37 11 50
Cooperative 14 52 13 59
Verbal response 10 37 9 41
Mobile 11 41 14 64
Visual sighting 9 33 3 14
Prone position 1 4 0 0
Dark clothing 1 4 0 0
Hidden from view 0 0 3 14
Other 0 0 0 0

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ROUTES HIKERS FOLLOW

ROUTE FOLLOWED Yosemite 80-82 Colorado 80-81

Number % Number %
Unknown 0 0 0 0
Path/trail/road 12 37 17 55
Natural drainage 13 41 11 35
Natural clearings 1 3 1 3
Toward landmark 3 9 4 13
Toward civilization 0 9 10 32
Over major obstacle 1 3 2 7
Wandered about 6 19 5 16
Cross country 8 25 8 26
Other 0 0 1 3

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REASON HIKER LOST

REASON HIKER LOST Yosemite 80-82 Colorado 80-81

Number % Number %
Unknown 0 0 0 0
Poor supervision 2 5 7 22
Accidental supervision 5 13 10 31
Intentional separation 12` 31 10 31
Took short cut 3 8 2 6
Poor/no map 9 23 9 28
Disoriented 16 41 15 47
Poor trail/markings 3 8 2 6
Misjudge time/ distance 9 23 11 34
Other 5 13 2 6

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